Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.