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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.