This Remarkable Scoring Streak Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
A mere eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the source of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
As per Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.