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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer should Putin continued obstructing truce talks, Trump ultimately introduced considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to support his military invasion in the region.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, he has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Military Action

The former president's plan would essentially favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Despite bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative effectively undermine that very independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate experience, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, implying ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian soil will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about controlling a destroyed region of deindustrialized land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear goal to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the accountable government that his deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While keeping in place the currently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to occupy in over a ten years of fighting, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses critically weakened.

This region is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established protective structures that are a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open way to Kyiv if he eventually opt to resume the conflict.

Military Limitations

Then, in a action that would facilitate additional fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal places no such restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, the plan declares: "Any extremist belief system and activities must be opposed and prohibited." As if to underscore this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no requirement that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting votes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has broken similar accords in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied land in the region to Ukrainian control – why should the international community trust this commitment now?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international security guarantees. While the proposal threatens a "immediate unified military response" in case Russia restart its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics include vague to troubling. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from deploying troops on the nation's land, thus preventing the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Russia from rebuilding his weakened forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

An additional side agreement reportedly would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. But in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary deterrent against future invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Western powers, such as Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's attacks, something they have {not