Dutch Polls: Major Parties and Main Issues in Early Election
Voters in the Holland are set to possibly exchange the most conservative administration in recent memory with a more moderate and commonsense alliance during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous government in the summer, when far-right figure Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks established a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, NSC party and center-right VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too toxic for the premier position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to sniping from outside government.
He ultimately triggered the government collapse on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a radical 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to guard frontiers, rejecting all asylum seekers, shutting down refugee hostels and sending home all Syrian refugees.
While support for the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the rightwing, Islam-critical party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but none is projected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, typically an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
There are 150 representatives in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party ever manages this, and the Holland has been governed by coalitions for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an approved list of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that wins 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been characterized in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from over four-fifths in the eighties to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this trend has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the military to combat "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but slumped to just five seats in the last election.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is on track to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Headed by the seasoned former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its manifesto.
Three additional groups look likely to be important players in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is projected to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a platform centred on residential construction (it plans to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its leader, accused of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decline. It is proposing corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the unsuccessful previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to decline, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns so far have been immigration, with several – sometimes violent – protests against planned emergency reception centres for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is short of 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Dutch politics, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
Following the vote, MPs first appoint an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, typically the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a mix of parties from centre left and center right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and one or more minor groups potentially including JA21.
